2009 NHL Playoffs: Last Four Spots

So... very... close. Almost every team is down to their final two games of the season and here's the race for the final four playoff spots (two left in each conference):

Eastern Conference

#7 - Montreal Canadiens - 92 points. Games Thurs at Boston & Sat vs Pittsburgh
#8 - New York Rangers - 91 points. Games Thurs vs Philadelphia & Sun at Philadelphia
#9 - Florida Panthers - 89 points. Games Thurs at Atlanta & Sat vs Washington
#10 - Buffalo Sabres - 87 points. Doesn't matter... too far back

Prediction...
Rangers win one and lose one for 7th
Canadiens lose both and back into the playoffs at 8th
Florida wins one... not enough

Western Conference

#7 - Anaheim Ducks - 88 points. Games Fri vs Dallas & Sat at Phoenix
#8 - St Louis Blues - 88 points. Games Fri vs Columbus & Sun at Colorado
#9 - Nashville Predators - 86 points. Games Thur at Detroit & Fri at Minnesota
#10 - Minnesota Wild - 85 points. Too far back

Prediction...
Anaheim wins both... 7th place
St Louis wins at least one... 8th place
Nashville... not gonna win both

No, I Don't Want It... You Go Ahead

Well... there were four "close to must win" games played by on the bubble teams tonight. At the end of the day, two wins and two losses.

Eastern Conference

Buffalo... defeats Washington 5-4 in OT. This puts the Sabres four points back of the 8th place New York Rangers, but with Buffalo having a game in hand on New York. On the negative side, there's also the Florida Panthers to deal with in 9th place two between Buffalo and New York. Not likely the Sabres will be able to find there way in, but they certainly needed these two points to remain in the conversation.

Florida... loses to Atlanta 3-1. C'mon... Atlanta? I know they've won four in a row, but the Panthers would have pulled even with idle New York at 8th in the standings.

Western Conference

Minnesota... defeats Calgary 4-0. Similar to Buffalo, Minnesota needed this win to entertain their notion of making the playoffs. With the win, they pulled to two points behind 8th place St Louis... with 9th place Nashville between them.

Nashville... loses to Chicago 2-1. Whoops... a win over the Blackhawks would have jumped the Preds into 8th place and a playoff slot (for now). Not meant to be, though.

End result of the action was 4 games that mattered... two that were won by teams that desperately needed them and two that were lost by teams that could have put themselves in good spots with a win.

I guess desperation really does help.

Final Two Weeks - Storylines to Watch

Two weeks left in the regular season and there's some really interesting things to watch for...

1. Teams "sending a message" to potential playoff opponents. As evidenced by the recent pugilism in the March 29 Vancouver-Calgary game and March 26 Calgary-Columbus matchup.

2. The race for the #1 seed in the West. Detroit is certainly trying help San Jose with them having two straight losses, but the Sharks are still going through a world of injury hurt (which won't be getting any better should Captain Patrick Marleau miss any time).

3. Battle for the final playoff spots in the East. Looks to be three teams for two spots remaining...

- 7th spot: New York Rangers - 87 points. 6 games left.
- 8th spot: Montreal Canadiens - 86 points. 7 games left.
- 9th spot: Florida Panthers - 85 points. 6 games left.

Prognosticating this race, I gotta think that the Rangers and Canadiens hold their playoff spots (Montreal's game in hand should help a lot). Anything's possible, though... and in that category, Buffalo is only 3 points back of Florida).

4. Battle for the final playoff spots in the West. Assuming that Columbus is safely in, that leaves five teams for two spots...

- 7th spot: Nashville Predators - 84 points. 6 games left.
- 8th spot: St Louis Blues- 83 points. 6 games left.
- 9th spot: Anaheim Ducks - 82 points. 6 games left.
- 10th spot: Edmonton Oilers - 81 points. 6 games left.
- 11th spot: Minnesota Wild - 80 points. 6 games left.

Lots of interesting things going on here. Out of this quagmire, I'd love to see St Louis make it as they've fought hard to reach a level this season people wouldn't have expected and would love to see Anaheim not make it. Just don't like them... and they're a scary opponent.

With where things stand right now, the playoff matchups would look like this. Under the "teams in the hunt" category, note the Anaheim at Edmonton game this Tuesday night... a pretty big one.

Prognosticating Playoff Participants II - NHL Eastern Conference

After laying out my predictions and associated reasons why for the Western Conference playoff hopefuls in a prior post, it's time to look at the East. First, the current picture...

Eastern Conference Standings

1. Boston - 82 points
2. Washington - 70 points
3. New Jersey - 67 points
4. Montreal - 64 points
5. NY Rangers - 63 points
6. Philadelphia - 61 points
7. Buffalo - 59 points
8. Florida - 56 points
9. Carolina - 55 points
10. Pittsburgh - 55 points
11. Toronto - 47 points
12. Tampa Bay - 45 points
13. Ottawa - 41 points
14. Atlanta - 41 points
15. NY Islanders - 37 points

My various and sundry thoughts...

- #1 (Boston) at 82 points and #2 (Washington) at 70 points. Wow... quite a delta.

- New Jersey is 3rd in the conference without all-world goalie (and some would say all in the family guy) Martin Brodeur. Impressive... and makes one wonder how good they'll be with a healthy and rested Marty.

- It wouldn't have been a stretch the predict the Islanders would be so bad, but Ottawa... who would have thought that? Well, actually... I would have in my Eastern Conference season preview.

- To the question of who will make it... I think the top six teams above are all good enough to hold those spots, or at least hold a spot in the top eight. Additionally, I think Toronto and below are both too far back and not good enough to fight their way into the top eight. This creates an "an then there were four (with only two spots)" scenario featuring: Buffalo, Florida, Carolina and Pittsburgh.

- Carolina I'm going to discount and say I don't think they'll make it... just not good enough. Now, if they would just move back to Hartford and put a snazzy green whale on their chests, I would certainly want them to be good enough, but... I digress.

- Florida is the surprise of the bunch (well, the good surprise if you're like me and are surprised to see Pittsburgh currently out of the playoffs). One thing I think will hurt them down the stretch is the likely trade of #1 defenseman Jay Bouwmeester. This probably wouldn't be a bad move as it would prevent him from leaving for nothing as an unrestricted free agent this offseason, but would weaken the Panthers' chances this year.

- With these two teams out, that would mean that I think Buffalo and Pittsburgh both are in. True, it's my prediction, but it's not just by elimination... the Sabres and Penguins both have going something I think helps a lot, superstar players. Ryan Miller and Thomas Vanek on one side and Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin on the other are exceptional enough to win a few games almost by themselves and make me think both Buffalo and Pittsburgh are playoff teams.

But, that's why they play the games...

Prognosticating Playoff Participants - NHL Western Conference

Living by the credo of "it's never too early", let's take a look at the current NHL standings and see how that would translate to the 8 playoff teams in each conference (starting off with the West in this post).

Actually, granted... it is just the first week of Feb, but an interesting fact I heard on Hockey Night in Canada Radio the other day (love that Sirius) was that last season the only two teams to be out of the top 8 in their conference at the end of January and still make the playoffs were Washington and Nashville. So, in this case... past performance really does indicate future results, but I digress.

Western Conference Standings

1. San Jose - 77 points
2. Detroit - 71 points
3. Calgary - 64 points
4. Chicago - 62 points
5. Anaheim - 55 points
6. Dallas - 53 points
7. Minnesota - 53 points
8. Edmonton - 53 points
9. Columbus - 53 points
10. Phoenix - 53 points
11. Vancouver - 52 points
12. Los Angeles - 47 points
13. Nashville- 47 points
14. Colorado - 47 points
15. St. Louis - 45 points

Well, there's a bunch of numbers and teams... what to take from it? Here's some observations...

- Draw a line below Chicago at #4 because there's your clear delineation point between the elite and other. One interesting thing is that you'll likely not have the situation this season with a weak division champion taking the 3rd spot. Going with the assumption that Calgary isn't as good as San Jose, Detroit (or even Chicago)... I still would fear them in a playoff matchup.

- Seeds 5-11 separated by three points... yowzer.

- Anaheim has had an on and off season, but they're likely just too good, experienced and nasty to not make the playoffs.

- Dallas being in the situation they are (a playoff team as of right now) is amazing given the dire (i.e. Sean Avery still on the active roster) straights they were two months ago. I have to believe if they've pulled themselves out of the abyss, they'll likely not fall back in it. Count them in as a playoff team.

- LA and below in the standings are a combination of just too young and not quite good enough this season. Count these four teams out.

- Vancouver is in free fall mode right now (even with Roberto Luongo back and Mats Sundin getting a bunch of money from them). I think current status combined with the memory of falling flat the final week of last season will cause them to... do the same this season.

- This leaves four teams for two spots... Minnesota, Edmonton, Columbus and Phoenix.

- I think Phoenix has the toughest road of the four to the playoffs. They have a difficult division top to bottom and uncertainty about the viability of the franchise in Arizona (back to Winnipeg, anyone?). Definitely a good young team and I'd like to see them make the postseason, but I wouldn't predict it happening this season.

- Columbus benefits from having both Nashville and St. Louis in their division (even though the top of the division is pretty darn "top" with Detroit and Chicago). I think this combined with the magic of a hot rookie goaltender in Steve Mason will put them into the dance for the first time in franchise history.

- Final spot (but, not necessarily only the #8 seed)... Minnesota-Edmonton, Oilers-Wild... I gotta go with the better goaltender in Nicklas Backstrom and nicer arena in the Excel Energy Center. Minnesota makes the playoffs.

The Plot Thickens

As the postseason fast approaches, there's new developments daily in the race for the final postseason spots. Most of them involving teams dropping out of contention, but a few involve a narrowing of the gap between playoff inclusion or exclusion.

Below are the current standings along with the Sat to Sat 3/22-3/29 records of the teams that have been gunning for the final playoff positions.

* Standings shown as of Sun Mar 30.

Eastern Conference:
7. Philadelphia- 3-0-1
8. Boston- 3-0-1
3. Carolina- 1-0-1
9. Washington- 3-0-0: 2 points out

So... we're down to the final week and both Buffalo and Florida have dropped out of contention (Florida officially and Buffalo for all intents and purposes), but Washington is continuing to charge hard.

Fascinating thing that has happened in the East is that as Washington won their last 4 games (all on the road), Carolina has come within reach... setting up a monster game Tuesday night at home against the Hurricanes. Assuming Boston and Philly continue to play well, this could determine the division winner (with 2nd place being left out entirely).

Western Conference:
7. Colorado- 3-1-0
8. Vancouver- 0-3-0
8. Nashville- 3-0-0: 2 points out
8. Edmonton- 3-1-1: 3 points out

Obviously a lot to still be decided in the West with three teams tied for the final playoff spot (Colorado is probably safe as they're 4 points up on the pack). Edmonton is at a disadvantage in that they have 2 few games left that Vancouver or Nashville (2 vs 4), but should they get 2 points against Calgary on Tuesday, it could set up a big game Thursday night in Vancouver.

Nashville still seems to be in the best position for the 8 spot given that while the Northwest division teams will continue beating up up on each other, the Preds finish with a home and home vs St. Louis and then visit the Blackhawks for their last game.

A New Point in Time

Well, there have been a few interesting developments since the last musings written here. Below is a recap of where things stood a few days ago with any new developments between Wednesday and right now (Sat afternoon prior to the 7:00EST games)...

Western Conference:
1. Detroit- likely all good in first place. Update... same.
2. San Jose- "hopefully" solid in the 2nd spot. Update... affirmed, with a bullet.
3. Northwest Division- a hodgepodge race with Minnesota, Calgary, Vancouver and Colorado all jumbled up, with all teams seemingly destined to make the playoffs. Update... the Wild appear to be pointed towards the division title and Colorado appears to be inviting both Nashville and Edmonton to make things interesting in the race for the 8 spot. The thought here is that Colorado should be a good enough team to hold off the challengers, but it's certainly not a done deal.
4/5. Anaheim / Dallas- pointed towards a 1st round battle with each other. Update... same.

Eastern Conference:
1. Montreal / New Jersey / Pittsburgh / Ottawa- all going for 1st in the Conference, but doesn't seem terribly important who gets the top spot. Update... same as it ever was.
2. NY Rangers- needing to cement their spot in the playoff mix. Update... seem to be good now.
3. Boston- same as NYR. Update... getting perilous.
4. Philadelphia- perilous. Update... have passed the Bruins.
5. Playoffs challengers- Buffalo, Washington, Florida & Toronto all hoping to squeeze in. Update... nobody seems to be distinguishing themselves, but particularly Buffalo and Washington still very much in the mix.

So... a few days have gone by and what has changed? Not an awful lot, but in the West, Edmonton has entered the playoff conversation.

T minus 10

Getting down to the wire, only a few teams have 10 games left, everyone else with 8 or 9... pretty much all of which are divisional games. As we've reached this late point in the season, things have sorted out a bit, but still some intriguing (and some not so intriguing) races left. It's likely that some unexpected things will happen other than what's below, but at this point, here's what seems to be in play.

Western Conference:
1. Who will finish 1st? Likely Detroit, but it doesn't really matter.

2. Who will finish 2nd? Now, here's a more interesting question. It's all but guaranteed that 2nd will belong to the winner of the Pacific Division, with the "non-winners" in the Pacific finishing 4th and 5th... and having to play each other. Here's to hoping that the Sharks can hold on to their 5 point (with one game still in hand) lead and Anaheim and Dallas have to beat up on each other in the first round.

3. Who will finish 3rd? It's a four team race right now with Minnesota, Calgary, Vancouver and Colorado within 2 points of one another. I'm sure each team would like to take the Central Division, but the reality is that the three teams that don't still "should" take spots 6-8 and make the playoffs. Anything is possible, but all of these teams have enough talent that a current 4+ point cushion over teams on the outside will likely be enough.

Eastern Conference:
1. Who will finish first? Again, same as in the West, it doesn't seem terribly important. Here, it's a closer race, though, with 3 if not 4 teams having a legitimate shot.

2. Who will make the playoffs, period? Here's where things get interesting. The Rangers and Bruins are in 6th and 7th respectively, 5 & 3 points up on 9th place Washington, but with the Caps having played one more game than either team.

Assuming that NY and Boston are safe (which could easily come into question with a loss or two), then you get to the 8th place Flyers... who have been free-falling as of late and are 2 points up on Washington and 3 up on Buffalo (with the Sabres having a game in hand). This 8th spot (again, if not the 6th and 7th) likely will be up for grabs until the end with either the Sabres or Caps pushing to make the dance. It's possible the Panthers could even pop into the Flyers spot, but not terribly likely given that they're 4 back and have the two other teams between them and Philly.

What do I think will happen? I think the West will pretty much play out as it stands now and in the East, I think the Flyers will make way to the Caps.... with the Sabres potentially taking the Bruins spot should they implode. The Caps will be particularly interesting to watch as they're on a 6 game roadtrip (what, is the Circus in town?), but I think they're up to the task. Again, it will be all about... resiliancy.