Friday, November 21, 2008

Sharks Shot Differentials with >1 Goal Lead

Interesting question raised below about how a >1 goal lead impacts shots on goal...

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Alan Mello has left a new comment on your post "San Jose Sharks Team: Nov 14 Point in Time":

Thinking about your post and reflecting on my experiences with the Sharks, something came to mind. I remember many Sharks games where the Sharks were badly beaten (think Penguins in the 90's), yet the Sharks outshot their opponent.

I wonder if the "New NHL" has changed this. In the old days of clutching and grabbing, when you had a lead, you could just clamp down, not worry about scoring again, and just limit the opponent to long shots.

But in the "New NHL" where "no lead is safe", the strategy may be different. Since, in most of the old games that I was refering to, the Sharks were behind by more than a goal in the first period, I wonder what the stats would look like in today's world. When a team is more than a goal ahead after the first period, do they tend to outshoot their opponent?

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My initial reaction would be that the Sharks have done well this year precisely because they continue to at least hold their own in shot differential once they have the lead, but it's always good to examine the #s. Here's what they say...

16-3-1 record.

2 games (both wins) with a lead of >1 goal after the first period.
Average -.8 shots for the second and third periods of these two games.
Average +.5 goals for the second and third periods of these two games.
Conclusion... took a big lead early and then held their own for the wins.

6 games (both wins) with a lead of >1 goal after the second period.
Average -3.5 shots for the third period of these six games.
Average +.2 goals for the third period of these six games.
Conclusion... big lead after two and then held their own for the wins, but the comment about the trailing team having more shots does seem to hold true.

Interesting... not statistically "the whole story", but interesting.

1 comment:

Earl Sleek said...

Yeah, I don't have the number-crunching abilities, but I'd be interested if somebody published stats according to score differential and period. My eyes tell me that teams play differently in those situations, and it would be nice if it were somewhat quantified.

Who knows? Maybe my eyes are lying, but I'd sure like to know by how much.